Oil Production Forecasts Drop from 1.03 Million Barrels to 730,000 Barrels Per Day

In its monthly report released on April 15, 2025, the International Energy Agency (IEA) revised its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 down by 28%, from 1.03 million barrels per day to 730,000 barrels per day. This adjustment is attributed to the escalation of trade tensions, particularly between the United States and China, and their impact on the global economy

This revision comes just one day after a similar reduction by OPEC, reflecting a consensus between the two organizations regarding the slowdown in economic growth and its effect on oil consumption

How long will this slowdown last?

The agency expects the demand growth slowdown to persist into 2026, reaching 690,000 barrels per day, as weaker economic conditions are anticipated to affect oil consumption, despite price reductions that may provide some support

On the other hand, the IEA also lowered its global oil supply growth forecast for 2025 by 260,000 barrels per day, bringing it down to 1.2 million barrels per day due to declining production in the United States and Venezuela

These projections indicate that the global oil market may experience an oversupply in the next two years, which could impact prices and production and storage strategies in oil-producing countries

It is important to note that these forecasts could change based on developments in trade tensions and future economic policies